WEEK FOUR. WE WANT MORE

Still on the plus side

We’ve heard from a few folks that our GO BIG or GO HOME strategy of front loading the GREAT EIGHT™ with five UPSET SPECIALS was perhaps not the smartest move.  We admit that it was a pinch aggressive but we thought the moment was right to strike. So we went 4-4 for the day including two huge UPSET SPECIALS, taking Vanderbilt and the points against Notre Dame, and Fresno over UCLA. And we came pretty darn close to winning a couple more. So net-net, we made some decent money for the weekend. Are we satisfied? Of course not. We want it all, and we want it now. And so do you.

WHEN THE GOING GETS TOUGH, WE EAT AND DRINK

WWW braintrust at work

Earlier in the week, WWW brought together some pretty smart guys to discuss pick strategy as well as the algorithms we employ for selecting games. We agreed to a few refinements so hopefully you’ll benefit with our new thinking. We also agreed that we like damn cold beer and tasty appetizers. You can’t win on an empty stomach. Joining the confab was LAIR of the BEAR from Pasadena and Golden Gator from the Carolina coast.

EXTRA POINTS

Not quite what it use to be

• Florida only took 2600 of its 7500 ticket allotment for the Florida v Tennessee game. Once upon a time this was THE hottest ticket in the SEC, if not America. But with struggling programs (Tennessee has lost its last nine SEC games), fans are rethinking their ticket purchase decisions and passing on the trip to Rocky Top.

• Last Saturday Big Ten teams lost 7 games to non-conference teams. For a conference that demands respect, they need to start being dominant. Otherwise they risk getting left out of the CFP again.

• Nebraska is off to a terrible start with its first 0-2 start since 1957, after losing to Troy. And with a trip to Michigan coming up, it’s not going to get any better. What say ye, Scott Frost?

• With Alabama’s 62-7 butt kicking of Ole Miss, the Tide becomes the first team in SEC history to score 50+ points in its first three games. The offense AND defense is looking unbeatable.

Golden Gator and sidekick

GOLDEN GATOR CALLS THE GAME

Despite this game not being the big conference championship decider as in the past, it’s still, nevertheless, a fierce rivalry. Tennessee seems to struggle every season with Florida and it’s especially frustrating when the Vols appear to have the better team. It’s hard to tell this season who’s better and that’s why we’ve asked our veteran picker, GOLDEN GATOR, to give us his take.

In His Words…

“Here we go again…. the REAL Orange Bowl, with 100,000 people wearing really ugly orange clothes, with just a few wearing beautiful blue. Since 1971, Florida is 25 - 7 versus Tennessee making the game very predictable.

NOT SO THIS YEAR

This game will be close. Both schools have new coaches trying to return their schools to greatness. But we all know the first year is treacherous for a coach. Florida has the advantage here with Dan Mullen’s head coaching experience.

Both schools have running attacks with potential.  Tennessee has had success after WVU.  And Florida clearly has skilled running backs with the emergence of Damien Pierce in the Colorado State game. Tennessee will depend on the run to control the game. They will run up solid ground game numbers.

What about the passing game? Tennessee has two solid quarterbacks, each steady although facing a solid passing defense from Florida. Even with multiple injuries, the Florida secondary will be a huge challenge for the Vols.  In my view, the Vols passing game will be weak, in part because they will run two out of three plays but also because the Gators will prevent long pass completions.

Felipe Franks is much improved when the game is even or the Gators are leading. but, if the Gators fall behind, Franks tries too hard… overthrowing and happy feet become too common.  Thank goodness some quality receivers have emerged. In this game, I see Van Jefferson getting the game ball. He’s returning to his Tennessee home and is primed for greatness.

Florida special team play is a real advantage along with a better kicking game.

FLORIDA WINS  27-17 IN A HARD FOUGHT BATTLE!

THE GREAT EIGHT™ for WEEK FOUR

FLORIDA @ TENNESSEE…two teams with new coaches, rebuilding once proud dominant teams, looking for significant wins. Which team needs a win the most? You could build a case for either team but we would probably go with the Vols and new coach Jeremy Pruitt., especially in a night game at raucous Neyland Stadium. Last week the Vols started to gel but that was against one of the poorest teams in America, UTEP. For Tennessee to post a win over Florida they have to run the ball, move the chains, and minimize turnovers. QB Jarrett Guarantano doesn’t have to be a hero, just not play dumb…forcing throws, throwing picks, taking huge sacks. Going against Golden Gator and saying Tennessee skins the Lizards in Knoxville.

#2 GEORGIA @ MISSOURI…besides Alabama, Georgia probably has the most complete offense with a strong stable of tailbacks, depth of quality receivers, and a top ranked quarterback. That should be enough to win this game. But no so fast. Mizzou has its own qb headliner, Drew Lock, and he will certainly make some noise on Saturday. Bottomline though…the Dawgs have barely broken a sweat this season and the more talented and complete Georgia team will have no trouble pulling away in the second half. Run with the Dawgs in the one.

#3 CLEMSON @ GEORGIA TECH…the Tigers are trying to find the team of the last two seasons in which they dominated other teams on their way to the CFB. Meanwhile the Jackets continue to flounder as evidenced by their lackluster performance against Pitt. It was one of the poorest efforts by Tech and has to have you wondering about Paul Johnson’s longevity. And they must have the most inept special teams unit in the country. The Tigers won’t need much help from the Jackets in this one. Tigers bite the Jackets on the Flats.

#7 STANFORD @ #20 OREGON…both teams have identical records (3-0) but have played very different levels of competition. Oregon has played three cupcakes: Bowling Green, Portland State, San Jose State. Meanwhile, Stanford has played two challenging teams, San Diego State and Southern Cal. So while Oregon has some pretty stout defensive numbers, they really haven’t been tested, and with the Cardinal they will be tested. Stanford plays very physical and if rb Bryce Love can find his groove, this game goes to Stanford. Cardinal over the Ducks.

#18 WISCONSIN @ IOWA…the Badgers were bit last Saturday by BYU, barely losing on a whiffed field goal attempt. Ouch. So they really need to bounce back and we think they will. RB Jonathan Taylor is Heisman caliber and he’s going to need his A game and a strong push by his offensive line going against the #2 ranked defense that has racked up 12 sacks so far this season. Go big with Bucky the Badger in a close one.

NEBRASKA @ #19 MICHIGAN…the Huskers opened the season with two losses, the most recent to Troy. This is the first time since 1956 in which the Bug Eaters lost their first two games. And with a trip to Ann Arbor, it looks like that streak is going to continue. Ouch. I don’t see much changing especially if Husker qb Adrian Martinez can’t go. He’ll be replaced by a so-so qb, Andrew Bunch. The Wolverines feature qb Shea Patterson that is starting find his place in Harbaugh’s offense. Wolverines chomp on the Huskers.

WASHINGTON STATE @ SOUTHERN CAL…the Cougars are sitting at 3-0 but they really haven’t played anyone yet, at least no high powered FBS offense. If the Trojan defense can keep playing tough and if their offense can finally get back on track, the Trojans have a good chance of pulling off this win. That’s a lot of “ifs” but we think they can do it. Trojans over the Cougars.  Note: this is a Friday night game so don’t forget to call your guy.

#17 TCU @ TEXAS…the Horned Frogs have beaten the Longhorns in five of their six meetings since TCU joined the Big 12. But tomorrow might be Texas’ best chance to win. The Horns are riding high after blowing out USC last week while the Frogs are coming off a slobberknocker against Ohio State. If Gary Patterson can get his TCU teams re-focused, they should be alright. This will be a tight one in Austin but the Horned Frogs will prevail. 

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