Friday, December 4, 2015

THE FINAL WEEK:  Put a fork in it.

The 2015 season has zipped by and we're ready to cap the season with Conference Championship Saturday.

It goes without saying that several of these games have national championship implications in which teams have the opportunity to make a final statement to the College Football Playoff committee which announces its final selections Sunday afternoon.

Before we dive into our championship picks, let's do a quick rewind of last weekend.

WEEKEND REWIND
Cha ching baby
We finished strong with a 6-2 weekend, only missing on Notre Dame and Baylor, both pretty close games decided late.

For the season, we've gone 59% in winning picks (see the pretty chart on the right). While we strive for the high '60s, the first third of the season was pretty zany with lots of upsets and last minute outcomes. Nevertheless, we still made enough cash to get momma something nice for Christmas and still have enough left over to continue decking out our man cave (aka headquarters for Woolard's Weekend Winners). I can always use another leather club chair along with some LED lighting for the bar cabinet. 


SIDELINES
Another season pissed away
Hey Big 12. Where's your conference championship game??  The Big 12 continues to duck a conference championship game but it looks like Oklahoma is firmly planted in the playoff mix. And Baylor, TCU and Okie State will all end up in pretty nice bowl games. Yet, the conference is willing to forgo a pile of cash by not having a championship game. How long does that last?

Ole Miss...we feel your pain.  It's one more season in which the Black Rebel Bears fall short of making it to the Georgia Dome. Despite knocking off division powers like Alabama, Auburn, LSU, the Rebs fell to Florida and were nipped 53-52 by Arkansas. Ole Miss along with Vandy and Kentucky are the only SEC teams yet to play in the SEC Championship game. Maybe next year.

Johnson under house arrest for bad season
Biggest disappointments of 2015. Given all the preseason hoopla there's probably no bigger busts than Auburn, Georgia, and Georgia Tech. The Tigers were picked to win the West and UGA - once again - failed to deliver despite having their sixth consecutive awesome recruiting class. I guess that's why Mark Richt is no longer in Athens. Coming off a great bowl win, the Yellow Jackets were picked by many to win the ACC. Their season was nothing less than horrendous, going 3-9 (1-7 conference). Paul Johnson is benefiting from a relatively quiet fan base, otherwise he'd be feeling a ton of heat right about now. Next season he will.

I beat 3 winning teams. Time to pay.
Is mediocrity deserving of a pay raise? The talk in Knoxville this week is all about Butch Jones getting a salary increase and contract extension. Hmmmm. While an 8-4 record is an improvement, only three of the wins were over teams with winning records (Georgia, Bowling Green, and Western Carolina). And WCU is a FCS school! Plus Butch and company blew fourth quarter leads in all of their four losses. I realize that Tennessee AD Dave Hart has no choice. It's part of the game in keeping your head coach happy. And the last thing that Tennessee needs is another coaching change. But winning games over weiner schools while losing against quality big boy football schools is not the way to earn pay increases and contract extensions. Hopefully the bar is higher next year and Butch surprises us all. Vol fans can only hope.

 Here's Your Weekend Winners for Week #14...Conference Champions...

Alabama vs Florida...there are a lot of storylines associated with this game. If Florida upsets Bama, then the SEC will be shut out of the College Football Playoff. If Bama rb Derrick Henry has a strong game, he's a lock for the 2015 Heistman Trophy. Kirby Smart is coaching in his last game before he moves to Athens. Florida brings a pretty stout defense to Atlanta. The Gators are highly ranked in all of the defensive metrics: touchdowns allowed, passing defense, etc. If they can find a way to bottle up Henry, then the Gators have a chance. We don't see that happening. Take the Tide for the SEC title.

Iowa vs Michigan State...the undefeated Hawkeyes are probably the least respected team despite their best season in 93 years. And Michigan State is one bad call away from its own perfect season. This should be a game that goes down to the wire. The difference? Spartan qb Connor Cook, the Big Ten's best quarterback and wr Aaron Burbridge, the Big Ten's top receiver. That duo alone is too much for the Hawkeyes to handle. Sparty wins another and makes its case for the CFP.

Southern Cal vs Stanford...the Cardinal still have a shot at the CFP with a win over the Trojans and a Clemson or Alabama loss, so there's plenty of incentive for Dave Shaw's Stanford club to win. QB Kevin Hogan is coming off a big win over Notre Dame while So Cal posted a huge 40-21 win over rival UCLA last week. The Trojans are riding a wave out rushing opponents in all seven games since Clay Helton took over as head coach. We like the Trojans in this one. In an UPSET SPECIAL, take Southern Cal over the Cardinal.

Clemson @ North Carolina...Dabo Sweeney's Tigers are one win from securing the top spot in the CFP. But the Tar Heels are not going down without a fight coming off a school record of 11 straight wins and leading the ACC in scoring (41.2 points). The key to this game is simply which defense plays the best. In a close one, we're laying our chips on Deshaun Watson to have another stand out game and secure the ACC title for his Tigers. Clemson clips the Heels.

Temple vs Houston...the Cougars have a hot offense but look for the Owls defense to cool it off. Key guy to watch is Temple's senior lb Tyler Matakevich, AAC defensive player of the year. Matakevich, the only FBS player to lead his team in tackles every games, has 118 tackles and 5 interceptions. In another UPSET SPECIAL, fly with the Owls. Temple topples Houston.

Baylor vs Texas...this is not a conference title game as noted earlier but Baylor is playing for a Sugar Bowl berth after losing in double overtime to TCU last week. The only way that the Bears lose this one is if the offense oversleeps and misses the team bus. Baylor leads the country in scoring (50+ points) and total offense (616 yards per game). Another loss adds to Charlie Strong's growing angst. Bet on the Bears to bury the cows.

Good luck Saturday.
MAKE MO' MONEY WITH MARK™